Working paper


Perceived Unemployment Risks over the Business Cycle[Working Paper][BoC SWP][Slides][Bib]

(with Xincheng Qiu, William Du and Adrian Monninger )

Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-agent Consumption Models (Job Market Paper)[Working Paper][BoC SWP][JMP-Slides][AI Podcast][Bib]

Details
  • Stylized facts on perceived income risks revealed in density surveys in comparison to the estimated income risks used in incomplete market macro models.
  • An incomplete-market life-cycle model with subjective/heterogeneous income risks calibrated from the survey data.
  • Heterogeneity in income risks as a new observable factor accounting for wealth inequality.
  • Lower perceived risks in the survey than conventional estimates help account for low-liquid-asset-holdings or hand-to-mouth agents.
  • A 3-min video presentation of the JMP version
PIR headline figure

How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty[Working Paper][BoC SWP][Slides][Bib]

Details

Uncovering Subjective Models from Survey Expectations[Working Paper][Slides][Bib]

(with Chenyu (Sev) Hou)
Details

Publications


Epidemiological Expectations[Working Paper][NBER WP][Jupyter Notebook][Slides][GitHub][Bib]

(in the Handbook of Economic Expectations)(with Christopher Carroll)
Details

Learning from Friends in a Pandemic: Social Networks and the Macroeconomic Response of Consumption[Working Paper][Slides][GitHub][SSRN][VoxEU][AI Podcast][Bib]

(European Economic Review ) (with Christos Makridis)
Details

Work in progress


Seeing the Economy through Colored Glasses: Partisanship in Macro and (not in) Micro Expectations[Working Paper][Bib]

(with Adrian Monninger and Kyung Woong Koh)

Reading between Lines: Measuring Macroeconomic Narratives from Texts using Large Language Models [Bib]

(with Chenyu (Sev) Hou and Jiannan (Jay) Jiang)

Perceived Delinquency Risks and Realized Outcomes

Consumption Spending before and after Unemployment

(with Michael Boutros and Nathanael Vellekoop)

Experienced Volatility, Subjective Attribution, and Perceived Income Risks