Working paper


Perceived Unemployment Risks over the Business Cycle[Working Paper][BoC SWP][Slides][Bib]

(with Xincheng Qiu, William Du and Adrian Monninger )

Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-agent Consumption Models (Job Market Paper)[Working Paper][BoC SWP][JMP-Slides][AI Podcast][Bib]

Details
  • Stylized facts on perceived income risks revealed in density surveys in comparison to the estimated income risks used in incomplete market macro models.
  • An incomplete-market life-cycle model with subjective/heterogeneous income risks calibrated from the survey data.
  • Heterogeneity in income risks as a new observable factor accounting for wealth inequality.
  • Lower perceived risks in the survey than conventional estimates help account for low-liquid-asset-holdings or hand-to-mouth agents.
  • A 3-min video presentation of the JMP version
PIR headline figure

Uncovering Subjective Models from Survey Expectations[Working Paper][Slides][Bib]

(with Chenyu (Sev) Hou)
Details

How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty[Working Paper][BoC SWP][Slides][Bib]

Details

Publications


Epidemiological Expectations[Working Paper][NBER WP][Jupyter Notebook][Slides][GitHub][Bib]

(in the Handbook of Economic Expectations)(with Christopher Carroll)
Details

Learning from Friends in a Pandemic: Social Networks and the Macroeconomic Response of Consumption[Working Paper][Slides][GitHub][SSRN][VoxEU][AI Podcast][Bib]

(European Economic Review ) (with Christos Makridis)
Details

Work in progress


Seeing the Economy through Colored Glasses: Partisanship in Macro and (not in) Micro Expectations[Working Paper][Bib]

(with Adrian Monninger and Kyung Woong Koh)

Reading between Lines: Measuring Macroeconomic Narratives from Texts using Large Language Models [Bib]

(with Chenyu (Sev) Hou and Jiannan (Jay) Jiang)

Perceived Delinquency Risks and Realized Outcomes